House price predictions favour
slow growth
by Gill Montia
November 5, 2007
An abundance of predictions for the 2008
housing market have left most homeowners confused because they range
from expectations of a single digit increase, to a housing market crash.
Taking an overview, Capital Economics,
the economic forecasting consultancy, is anticipating price falls of 3%
during both 2008 and 2009.
This position is supported by latest
figures from Hometrack, the property website, which show a 0.1% decrease
in prices during October.
However, Nationwide reported that house
prices rose by 1.1% during the month, whilst pointing out that
“underlying market activity is clearly slowing.”
Nationwide will publish its official
house price forecast for 2008 this month but Fionnuala Earley, the
society’s chief economist, expects price growth to be broadly flat
during the year.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders puts a
figure of 1% on a 2008 rise, given that a continuing shortage of
property will help underpin values.
Despite reporting an October decrease,
Hometrack expects a 1% price rise in 2008, followed by 2% in 2009.
Knight Frank is more optimistic and
predicts that UK prices will increase by 3% in 2008.
The estate agent believes rises in
Northern Ireland, Scotland and southern England in particular will be
well above this level.
Those new to homeownership, and
agnonising over the prospect of negative equity, will be heartened by
the number of forecasts showing property price increases.
However, many first-time buyers are
remaining with parents or in their rented accommodation hoping for a
crash, as this could be the only way they are likely to get on to the
housing ladder.
for further reports on Property prices
and predictions in the UK see:
http://www.hscproperty.com/hscp_articles_property_summary.htm |
