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House Prices September 2005

Well when the Halifax and the Nationwide can number crunch and get too apparently conflicting reports, how can the concerend homeowner be expected to make an informed decision about when to put their house on the market?

Read the reports below and decide for yourself:

House price 'slowdown' continues, Nationwide Building Society reports Sept 2005

 
Annual house price growth has slowed to its lowest level in nine years, according to the Nationwide.

Prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in August, the society said, leaving the average cost of a home at £157,310.

Annual price growth fell to 2.3% from 2.6% in July. However, in the three months to August prices grew by 0.3%.

Prices were experiencing a "continued controlled slowdown", Nationwide said - in line with the view that the market is heading for a soft landing.

'Increased optimism'

"In spite of a fair deal of bearish comment, the housing market has remained quite resilient this year following last year's interest rate hikes," Nationwide group economist Fionnuala Earley said.

Affordability is still an issue, particularly for first-time buyers, and it will take some time
Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide

The figures were in line with recent surveys from the Land Registry and Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) which showed annual house price inflation fell from almost 20% a year ago to about 5%.

Ms Earley said that activity was increasing with monthly purchase approvals on the up and estate agents reporting that sellers were now willing to adjust prices.

"This, along with a cut in interest rates, has made it more of a buyers' market - which has led to increased numbers of buyer enquiries and increased optimism about sales from estate agents," she said.

Affordability worries

However, Ms Earley warned that the appearance of a stabilising market did not necessarily signal a renaissance.

Homebuyers look at house
First time buyers are still finding it tough to get on the property ladder

"Even though wage inflation is almost twice the rate of house price inflation, affordability is still an issue particularly for first-time buyers, and it will take some time for the balance to be redressed."

Looking ahead, Ms Earley said she expected the market to continue to cool in a "controlled fashion".

Ed Stansfield at Capital Economics said the figures were "no surprise" and showed the Nationwide's figures were catching up with "long standing anecdotal evidence" of a market slowdown.

"We're set for a period where there'll be a steady drip feed of falls," he said.

Steady slowdown

Price declines experienced in London and the South East are set to spread across the country he added.

The UK property market has been slowing steadily over the past year, but most housing experts do not expect a dramatic slump in prices.

Earlier this year Capital Economics had predicted a 7% fall in prices during 2005. However, in June it said its original forecast was too "gloomy" as the market appeared to be undergoing a correction.

It now says a fall of around 2%-3% is more likely. "We wouldn't expect to see a rapid change in the rate of fall," Mr Stansfield told the BBC.

Last month, a study by the Centre for Economic and Business Research predicted that prices would fall 5% by 2007, but said that fears of a crash have been overdone.

 

September  2005

House prices rise again says Halifax

  

Evidence emerged today that last month's cut in the cost of borrowing is already beginning to have an effect on consumer confidence, when Halifax, the mortgage lender, claimed that house prices rose in August at four times the rate of the previous month.

The figures were "a real surprise", though, according to one senior economic analyst.

As it published its latest house price index, Halifax said that property prices increased by 1.6 per cent last month after gaining just 0.4 per cent in July.

The lender noted that this was the biggest monthly gain in prices since September last year, although it highlighted at the same time that the underlying trend in price growth is still very modest.

Prices increased by just 2.1 per cent during the eight months to the end of August - well down on the 12.5 per cent increase during the same period last year.

And annual house price inflation is running at just 2.5 per cent - way down on the 21.3 per cent annual growth at the same time last year.

As the Halifax claimed that market activity is "improving somewhat", with the nation's economic fundamentals still "good", the bank directly attributed last month's price growth to the Bank's cut in interest rates from 4.75 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

"The 1.6 per cent month-on-month jump in house prices in August is a real surprise," Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight, said.

"However, there are often significant fluctuations in house prices on a monthly basis and we do not believe that it is a sign that house prices are about to start moving back up strongly."

Although a price rise will be interpreted as good news for homeowners - particularly if it signals a kickstart to a housing market that has been lacklustre all year, all the evidence points, towards a price rise being temporary.

Halifax itself said last month's price rise was "consistent" with changes in borrowers' behaviour in the wake of previous rate cuts by the Bank.

Halifax said; "The pick-up in monthly house price growth in August seems to be consistent with a pattern established when the Bank of England implemented the first interest rate reductions during the two previous periods of rate cuts since 1997.

"On both occasions, there was an up-tick in house prices in the month that the interest rate cut occurred; this proved to be a temporary phenomenon."

At least one leading economist also questioned the trend as shown by the survey from Halifax, part of the HBOS banking group. Critics of house price surveys from mortgage lenders often then that they have a vested interest in talking up the strength of the market.

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